The Jets-Lions game has some of the same handicapping elements as last week's Giants-Texans game.
The Giants came in having lost two in a row, the second of those at home. Although their offense had shown some signs of coming around in a Week 2 loss to the Cardinals, there was a new, big injury (Jon Beason), and some seemingly bad matchups in store against the Texans, notably a suspect offensive line against J.J. Watt. The Giants not only won, they won big.
So here are the Jets, losers of two straight, the most recent at home to the Bears. They have an extremely iffy Eric Decker (hamstring) and a nightmare of a matchup with their cornerbacks up against Calvin Johnson, if he plays.
Even with the "Megatron" mismatch, this figures to be a defensive slog. The Lions are No.1 in the NFL with 244.3 yards per game allowed, while the Jets are No. 1 in the AFC at 268.3. The QBs actually have comparable numbers: Matthew Stafford has 883 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions and Geno Smith is 713-3-4. The Jets have an edge on the ground, with Chris Ivory averaging 5.7 yards per carry to Joique Bell's 3.0
But this selection comes down to urgency, and it was encouraging to hear Rex Ryan say that word and embrace that feeling this week. With the Chargers, Broncos and Patriots lined up ahead, Ryan knows he can't let this season get to 1-3. He will throw he everything he can dream up at the Lions to try to win this game.
The pick: Jets +1 ¹/₂ .
Raiders (+4) over Dolphins (at London): The Dolphins have urgency, too, with two losses after their stunning win over the Patriots. But this spread seems a bit much on a neutral field, especially with Knowshon Moreno not available to help struggling QB Ryan Tannehill. Impressed with rookie QB Derek Carr, though the numbers aren't there yet. He's covered the spread two of his first three.
Packers (-1¹/₂) over BEARS: Odd line considering the Bears have won two in a row and the Packers are 0-2 on the road by a combined 55-23. Here's why: Aaron Rodgers is 10-2 in his career against Chicago and has won his last seven, and the Bears are beat up in the secondary. Geno Smith couldn't take advantage but Rodgers will.
TEXANS (-3) over Bills: Wouldn't give many more than this, though, because the Texans' offense didn't look like much against the Giants with Arian Foster out and Andre Johnson gimpy. Those injury concerns remain.
COLTS (-7¹/₂) over Titans: OK, football mathematicians … How have the Titans been outscored 69-43 if they are plus-44 yards per game and plus-1 in turnovers? The Titans are sweating out Jake Locker's wrist injury. Meanwhile, the Colts are getting rolling, and know how to blow out suspect foes.
RAVENS (-3¹/₂) over Panthers: That was a telling loss on Sunday night to the Steelers. The Panthers couldn't stop the run, and didn't even try the zone-read option with Cam Newton because of his rib injury. And now the Ravens' Steve Smith, a Carolina legend, takes a shot at his old team.
STEELERS (-7¹/₂) over Buccaneers: Bucs will have had 10 days to think about their desultory 56-14 no-show in Atlanta. Maybe they should think about other careers. Somewhere, Greg Schiano is laughing his butt off. Pittsburgh isn't the place where bad teams go to get well.
CHARGERS (-13) over Jaguars: Loss of Danny Woodhead is huge for Chargers, who already were without Ryan Mathews. That leaves Donald Brown and his 2.0 yards per carry. That will hurt them against better defenses but not so much here. Qualcomm is a tough place for Blake Bortles to make his first start.
Eagles (+5) over 49ERS: Love the desperation angle, and the Niners certainly should be that, but it's hard to justify this hefty lay to the undefeated Eagles. Fun college rematch of Chip Kelly and Jim Harbaugh. Their two Oregon-Stanford meetings were 51-42 Harbaugh in 2009 and 52-31 Kelly in 2010.
Falcons (-3) over VIKINGS: Like Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater makes his first NFL start after a lengthy relief appearance. He's QBing a team whose leading rusher after three games has 95 yards, and plays wide receiver (Cordarelle Patterson). Just a hard task trying to keep up against a loaded Falcons offense.
COWBOYS (+3) over Saints: Cowboys in nice home-'dog role after big comeback win at St. Louis, where they trailed 21-0. Saints are 0-2 on the road this season already, losing at Atlanta and Cleveland.
MONDAY NIGHT
CHIEFS (+3¹/₂) over Patriots: Taking the other home underdog in prime time as well. Andy Reid is hoping to get Jamaal Charles back. Replacement Knile Davis had 132 yards and a touchdown in the win at Miami, and, Jets fans, did you notice Joe McKnight scored two TDs against the Dolphins? Like Alex Smith's patience and efficiency to keep the ball away from Tom Brady.
BEST BETS: Steelers, Eagles, Falcons.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Steelers (Locks 2-1).
LAST WEEK: 10-6 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Giants.
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