TV ad sales headed down Stream

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 09 Desember 2014 | 10.46

TV sales chiefs hoping to rebound from a horrible 2014 see next year as looking even worse.

A host of forecasters, including typically bullish CBS, admit the US TV ad market saw tepid growth in 2014. Magna Global ad group suggests a decline in TV ad revenue in 2015.

"Our model shows that TV viewing has already dropped to 85 percent of total video viewing in the US.

Online streaming has reached a 15 percent market share, well above the 10 percent share often reported," analyst Doug Mitchelson — who is busy this week interviewing media titans at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference — said in a report Monday.

Mitchelson is pencilling in video streaming to have a 35 percent share of the market by 2020.
Analysts note while odd-numbered years have typically lower ad revenue since they don't have the Olympics and national elections to buoy them, 2015 has the lowest ad revenue outlook since the 2009 recession.

There's even more static on the way. Magna Global, IPG's research arm, says marketers will be spending more on digital media outlets than on traditional TV by 2017, one year sooner than predicted, according to Vincent Letang, executive vice president of global forecasting at Magna Global, which issued a new report Monday.

This year, TV outlets netted $66.654 billion, a 4.8 percent uptick on 2013. That's about half what forecasters suggested at the start of the year. Magna predicts there'll be a fall of 1.4 percent to $65.706 billion next year before a rebound of 4.7 percent in 2016.

Magna explains the reasons for the shortfall in TV ad growth this year:

  • A mini pull-back in consumer spending in the first quarter sent retailers and restaurants scurrying to cut advertising expenditures in the second and third quarters.
  • Digital: Advertisers shifted brand spending to digital outlets as ROI measurement tools improved. Packaged-good, pharmaceutical and food advertisers that were digital laggards started to spend more on brand campaigns in social media and elsewhere.
  • Poor TV ratings: Excluding tablet viewing, TV viewership was off 9 percent in 2014 while such streamers as Netflix and Amazon are growing rapidly.

The various dismal forecasts sent TV stocks tumbling on the toxic news. Monday's session saw declines at CBS (2.7 percent); Viacom (2.3 percent); and 21st Century Fox (1.1 percent).

Meanwhile, CBS Research Chief David Poltrack admitted that TV advertisers are shifting spending to digital but said they were wrong to do so, arguing that TV offers unique reach and that digital extensions are adding even more viewers.

"Big Bang Theory" is watched by 1 million people a week outside of the CBS network. He projects TV ad revenue will be flat in the first half and up just 2% in the second half.


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