Losing patience with the GDP

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 22 Maret 2015 | 10.46

Fed Chair Janet Yellen lost "patient" from her FOMC statement on Wednesday, but not her patience for growth in the economy.

But American savers have lost their patience getting zero interest.

Seven years with zero rates and this patient — the US economy — still can't stand on its own two feet and walk away from the "life support" of zero interest rates.

Yellen also lowered the Fed's growth forecast for 2015 to 2017 last week.

In December, it was calling for GDP in 2015 to come in at 2.6 percent to 3 percent. Wednesday, she downgraded that to 2.3 percent to 2.7 percent.

In fact, she downgraded projections all the way out to 2017. The 2016 estimate was also revised to 2.3 percent to 2.7 percent, down from 2.5 percent to 3 percent. The 2017 estimate was revised down to 2.0 percent to 2.4 percent.

There hasn't been a single year of 3 percent GDP since the crisis seven years ago — and there's not a single year of 3 percent GDP on the horizon, per the Fed's estimates.

If the Fed is correct, that will be a 12-year period with no growth above 3 percent GDP. We haven't seen one since 2005.

Prior to this, America has never gone more than four years without at least one 3 percent GDP year, and that was during the Great Depression years of 1930-33.

Therefore, this is the first time in US history that a president has the distinction of not having at least one 3 percent GDP year, let alone a two-termer.

President Obama has less than two years to validate his economic policy with at least one 3 percent year.

Yet the Fed is projecting that the economy will slow down, not grow.

While I'm glad Yellen has removed her rose-colored glasses about growth, now acknowledge that zero rates aren't the solution.

As I have written, it's not as much about the price of money, it's the availability of it to Main Street.

Whether it be mortgages for the middle class, consumer loans or even small-business loans, money is too tight due to the capital controls we have here. It's called over-regulation.

Free up capital, and you'll free up growth, Madam chair.


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