TAMPA — The Yankees' victory total has fallen from 97 to 95 to 85 to 84, with their .519 winning percentage in 2014 representing their worst since 1992.
The expectation — at least among those who establish gambling lines — is that it will get worse. Both Sportsbook.ag and Bovada.lv have established the Yankees' over-under at 81 1/2.
But the over-under that matters most for the 2015 Yankees is 75.
If Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia combine for at least 75 starts, then the Yankees almost certainly will exceed 81 1/2 victories, probably zoom toward 90 and their first playoff berth since 2012.
However, the over-under slap reflects just how a) dubious it is that that trio could combine for that many starts and b) how problematic the next line of Yankees starting pitching is should there be breakdowns.
At present, the Yankees' No. 4 starter is Nate Eovaldi, a magnificent arm in search of craft. The Yankees want to believe they can teach him a splitter and how to more strategically attack quadrants of the strike zone and how to back off at times of stress by throwing softer rather than harder. He is young and talented, and maybe this clay can be shaped. Or maybe Eovaldi is just A.J. Burnett — an arm in search of craft who never finds it.
The No. 5 starter is Chris Capuano, who has spent the latter half of his career as a Plan B stopgap until something better comes along.
Maybe the Yanks will get that better. If Ivan Nova continues to rehab well after Tommy John surgery. Or if Luis Severino is for real and only needs another 10-12 minor league apprentice starts to join the majors in a quality way.
But even if the glass is half full on both guys, we don't see them before June and we are talking about replacing Capuano. What if the emergency strikes quickly with Tanaka, Pineda or Sabathia — or some combination of them? After all, it is more likely each will have a DL stint this year than none will.
Chris CapuanoPhoto: Charles Wenzelberg
"It's healthy to worry about [all the scenarios] when you are in my chair," general manager Brian Cashman said.
That is true for any GM because 289 guys started games last year, 247 started at least three times and 223 started at least five times. It means even the luckiest clubs will need seven starters.
But if you are a squad that Vegas thinks so little of because of rotation delicacy, then starters 6-10 are pretty darn vital. Adam Warren, right now, is No. 6. The Yanks think he has the repertoire to start, but Joe Girardi actually sees him also as part of the discussion to close games. Bryan Mitchell, thanks to a power fastball/breaking ball duo, is among the farmhands the Yankees are asked about often in trades (San Diego was trying hard for him in the Chase Headley talks last July, as an example). The Yanks think he is where Shane Greene was last year before emerging as a useful rotation piece.
Esmil Rogers, Scott Baker and Chase Whitley are also being stretched out as starters. And you would have to think every start they make takes the Yanks closer to going under the 81 1/2. The Yanks were in protect-their-prospects and payroll mode this offseason, so are they really going to jump in on Cole Hamels or Cliff Lee (presuming he is healthy) this spring?
All of this accentuates the need for the Big Three to be healthy. Of course, we are at that part of the year where just about everyone feels great, best shape of their life, etc. Tanaka threw all his pitches in a bullpen session Saturday and reported feeling great. Pineda has lost weight and feels better, Sabathia has gained weight and feels better.
On pure talent, Tanaka and Pineda are Nos. 1-2 starters. They combined for 212 2/3 innings last year and a 2.45 ERA. Double the innings with the same production and that is as good as just about any team will get from the top two rotation spots. But Tanaka's right elbow and Pineda's right shoulder are physical time bombs.
And Sabathia's right knee is far more troubling than either of those problems. Even if we concede Sabathia — smart and competitive — can successfully transition from power to finesse, the question will be for how long. It is Sabathia himself talking about irreversible arthritis and all the maintenance his knee will need during the year and the potential career-ending microfracture surgery that hovers.
All of this fragility is why the Yanks are hoping an upgraded infield defense and longer pen can protect the number of pitches the starters must throw. It is why they already are contemplating using a sixth starter during an April-May phase when they have 30 games in 31 days.
But those are marginal protections. The marathon is still the marathon. The odds are against the top three starters going anywhere near the distance, and that is why the oddsmakers see the Yankees as having their worst team since the top three starters were Melido Perez, Scott Sanderson and Scott Kamieniecki.
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