KANSAS CITY, Mo. — James Shields is an exceptional regular-season pitcher who has struggled in the postseason.
Pablo Sandoval is a good regular-season player who has some Reggie about him.
The biggest free agents-to-be in this World Series offer a contrast that promises to make their coming negotiations fascinating: How much is October worth — or not worth?
The Red Sox have been associated with interest in both players. So Boston, among others, will have to come to peace with how much to factor in October performance.
To some degree, this can be viewed like the NCAA Tournament, where positive or negative Madness provides more information on when to draft a player. The Yankees, for example, considered Carlos Beltran's postseason excellence in their decision to sign him, whereas poor playoff dossiers have not hurt, for example, Nick Swisher or C.J. Wilson from landing big free-agent contracts.
But even within this, Shields creates a bit of a Catch-22: For the very item that makes him attractive — workhorse excellence — could act against him in free agency. Does his poor showing in postseasons, in general, but this one, in particular, scare off clubs afraid he has hit a scary level on his arm odometer? In other words, is he failing now not because of lack of fortitude, but presence of too many innings — and with his 33rd birthday coming in December is that a stay-away alert?
His 1,910 ¹/₃ innings since his 2006 promotion is third most in the majors and one of the pitchers in front of him, Justin Verlander, offers a cautionary tale of giving a huge contract to a pitcher who already has been heavily taxed. Think also, of recent vintage, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Matt Cain, CC Sabathia and — even to some degree — Masahiro Tanaka, who threw a ton of innings in Japan.
The three starters in line to be paid in huge in the coming free-agent market are Shields, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer and that trio hardly offered positive calling cards this postseason combining for six starts and a 6.95 ERA. Most of that (four starts) are by Shields and — unlike Scherzer and, particularly, Lester — Shields does not have an accumulation of postseason excellence to counteract this current impression.
Shields comes with the nickname "Big Game James." And while that works for the rhyme, it does not for the results. The righty has delivered a quality start (at least six innings, fewer than three earned runs) in 64.2 percent of his 285 career starts. It is 71.6 percent over his last four years when he had 96 in total. Only Clayton Kershaw (101) and Cole Hamels (97) have more.
Pablo SandovalPhoto: Getty Images
But in seven of 10 postseason starts, Shields has not hit the parameters for a quality start, including three of four this year. In World Series Game 1, he didn't record an out in the fourth inning and was leveled for five runs. The absence again of fastball command — his signature to best facilitate his terrific changeup — must be worrisome for the Royals to use him in Game 5 and any interested team.
The expectation was that Shields could land in the five-year, $90 million to $100 million range going into these playoffs, and that would be too rich for Kansas City to retain him. But will his price drop now?
And will Sandoval's rise? He rejected an overture believed to be in the three-year, $40 million range in the spring. It would be no surprise if he got about $80 million for five years on the opening market. Yes, his waistline is a constant worry, so is that his regular-season production never quite matches his skill. But he does have skill on both sides of the ball, is a switch-hitter and — at this point — his postseason success is no fluke.
In 33 playoff games, Sandoval had a .328 average and .923 OPS. High-level third baseman are hard to find and you can dream that Sandoval, still just 28, has his best years ahead of him — in the regular season.
"Do we want to keep him? Yes," said Giants president Larry Baer said. "We have a good track record of signing back our own."
Davis a pricey setup piece
When the Rays signed Wade Davis long-term before the 2011 season, he was a starting pitcher and they structured the contract in that fashion.
The guaranteed part of his contract was for four years at $12.6 million. But his three option years — which covered his final season of arbitration and what would be his first two free-agent seasons — are for $7 million, $8 million and $10 million.
That is money more in line for a starter than a setup man.
Nevertheless, Davis is no ordinary setup man. He had a 1.00 ERA this year and was as huge a relief force as anyone. So it would seem fine to pick up that $7 million for next year. It is just that Greg Holland will be in his second year of arbitraton, he made $4.675 million this season and as arguably the best closer in the AL could see that grow to the $7 million-$8 million range.
Can the Royals afford to pay $15 million-ish for roughly 130 innings late in games?
"Yes, in the immediate it works," Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. "We can make that fit. But we do have to analyze our roster from an economic standpoint every year."
Translation: Kansas City might have to listen to offers for either Holland or Davis this offseason and — if not then — probably the following offseason when both of their salaries together might equal $20 million.
Eiland: Nothing but 'respect' for ex-mate Righetti
In Dave Eiland's major league debut, Aug. 3, 1988, he worked seven innings of one-run ball. He was the winning pitcher of record when he left, the Yankees leading 5-1 heading to the bottom of the eighth at old County Stadium. But the reliever he came in gave up five runs and got just one out.
The pitcher was Dave Righetti.
But when I asked the Royals pitching coach about the Giants pitching coach, Eiland did not offer that as his memory of Righetti. Instead, he said: "I was a rookie and that was a time when they treated rookies badly. [Righetti] went out of his way to make me comfortable. Really, I have a ton of respect for him as a baseball guy, but more importantly as a person."
For the record, Righetti did get a save in one of Eiland's six career victories as a Yankee — on June 17, 1989 versus Texas. The identity of the two center fielders that day may also be of interest. For the Yankees, hitting ninth, was Roberto Kelly, who is now the Giants' first-base coach. The Rangers had a skinny center fielder leading off for them that day. His name was Sammy Sosa.
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