The inaugural four-team College Football Playoff could end up merely extending the Southeastern Conference's regular season by two weeks.
The 12-member committee released its first top-25 rankings, and — surprise, surprise — the powerhouse conference that has produced seven of the last eight national champions placed three teams in the top four and four in the top six.
Undefeated Mississippi State was picked first, one-loss Auburn at No. 3 and Ole Miss, coming off a disappointing loss at No. 19 LSU, fourth. Undefeated defending national champion Florida State, with a number of close calls, was ranked second.
"We don't analyze it by conference," playoff selection committee chairman Jeff Long said during ESPN's telecast. "We look at teams, and evaluate the teams they played, the success they had and the failure they had.
"We're still early in this process," cautioned Long, the athletic director at SEC West doormat Arkansas.
Oregon was ranked fifth and Alabama — the fourth of the SEC West title contenders — sixth. Long told reporters after the announcement the difference between Ole Miss and Oregon and Alabama — the two teams on the outside looking in for the moment — is "paper thin." TCU of the Big 12 was ranked seventh, the Big Ten's Michigan State was eighth, Kansas State ninth and, in a surprise, Notre Dame 10th.
Long emphasized the committee will start anew after this weekend's games, and will not merely pick up the rankings where the first one left off.
"One week's rankings won't influence the next week's rankings," he said.
The rankings will be released each Tuesday for the next six weeks, with a final ranking on Dec. 7 to determine the four teams that will play in the initial playoff as well as selections for other bowls. Semifinal games will be played Jan. 1 in the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl, with the championship game set for Jan. 12 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
The committee placed significant value on strength of schedule and quality wins. Auburn was rewarded for not only playing in the rugged SEC West, but winning on the road at Kansas State. Likewise, Notre Dame lacks a quality victory — Stanford's recent struggles have hurt the Irish.
Although No. 12 Arizona has defeated Oregon and No. 13 Baylor has beaten TCU, they were ranked lower because of weak schedules, Long said, while Ole Miss was rewarded for its head-to-head home victory over Alabama despite its loss last Saturday.
"As you would expect there was a lot of discussion about head-to-head, but head-to-head was only one criteria," Long said.
The top four figures to change frequently over the next six weeks. Florida State has the easiest road, with Thursday's visit to No. 25 Louisville likely its toughest remaining game. Mississippi State still has to travel to Alabama Nov. 15 and face in-state rival Ole Miss Nov. 29 in the Egg Bowl, not to mention a possible SEC title game against SEC East leader Georgia, ranked 11th.
Ole Miss has a pivotal contest against Auburn Saturday night — the loser almost certainly will fall out of the top four — while Auburn still meets Georgia and Alabama on the road.
Meanwhile, the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12 all find themselves potentially on the outside looking in.
Long singled out Oregon's quality wins over No. 8 Michigan State and UCLA and said the committee has taken into account their injury problems on the offensive line, though the only ranked opponent left on the Ducks' schedule is No. 17 Utah on Nov. 8, so it could prove difficult for them to finish in the top four.
For eighth-ranked Michigan State, a win over No. 16 Ohio State at home on Nov. 8 may not carry enough weight unless the entire SEC West falls all over itself. But a Big Ten title game victory against No. 15 Nebraska could prove significant, if added on to a win over the Buckeyes.
The Big 12 needs one among No. 7 TCU, No. 9 Kansas State or No. 13 Baylor to run the table. The TCU-Kansas State showdown Nov. 8 may not only decide the conference's champion, but could lead to a spot in the top four, depending how the other top-ranked teams fare.
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