New Jerseyans could soon find out what a really bad commute is. If they do, they can blame Gov. Chris Christie.
In fact, other pols will deserve blame, too. And this mess will cause problems across the region and even the country.
Last week, Amtrak — which runs the tunnel that brings 81,181 people on New Jersey Transit into Penn Station each day — made a doomsday warning.
Two years ago, Superstorm Sandy inundated the tunnel with salt water. The residue is causing "significant damage to key tunnel components," including tracks, signals and electricity, Amtrak said. "A permanent fix is required."
To do repairs, Amtrak must shut down each of the tunnel's two tracks in turn. That means traffic can only run one way at a time — which means cutting Amtrak and NJ Transit service by 75 percent.
This would:
- Paralyze Manhattan with cars.
- Cause traffic problems — car, truck and rail — from Washington through Fort Lee to Boston.
- Bring nationwide airport delays, as Acela users switch to planes.
And for a long time.
It would be nice if we had another tunnel.
Redundancy in really important things is vital. Mayor Michael Bloomberg devoted billions to building the city's third water tunnel because someday something might happen to the older two.
We were supposed to have a second Hudson tunnel half built by now — the $8.7 billion ARC project, to bring New Jersey trains near Penn Station.
But one of Christie's first actions as governor was to kill the project. "It's a dollar and cents issue," he said in 2010. "I cannot place, upon the citizens of the state of New Jersey, an open-ended letter of credit."
Christie was referring to inevitable cost overruns, which the Garden State would've had to cover single-handedly.
And yes, ARC was a flawed project — digging deeper than it perhaps had to, for example, partly to appease environmentalists.
But complex projects need leadership — not abandonment. Rather than pretend ARC was worthless, Christie could've at the very least started looking for a way to get the tunnel built with less risk to his taxpayers.
Yes, Amtrak is planning its own tunnel now. But it's just starting the design work.
Even if the Obama administration speeds up the environmental process and finds a good $10 billion-plus for the new new tunnel, the tunneling work itself takes at least five years.
So we're unlikely to see this new tunnel for a decade — when ARC was due to be ready in 2018.
Amtrak wants to wait for the backup tunnel before it shuts down the existing one. But "we're in a race against the clock," Stephen Gardner, who heads up northeast infrastructure for the railroad, said Thursday.
Amtrak must spend more money on repairs and maintenance as it waits. "The longer we have to do that, the more those interim dollars represent wasted opportunity to invest in the ultimate fix," Gardner says.
And if damage accelerates, it will have to severely reduce service anyway, no matter what the inconvenience.
So instead of cost overruns, Jerseyans risk the possibility that they'll have no way to get to work.
As for savings from cancelling ARC? The Regional Plan Assocation said awhile back that ARC would have boosted Jersey property values by $18 billion.
Even if that's an overestimate, it's clear that commuter chaos would harm property values — and likely reduce jobs and income, too.
The tunnel fallout wouldn't just impact New Jersey. New York needs its Jersey workforce, from bankers to hotel workers.
Gov. Cuomo was indifferent to the potential Hudson catastrophe when a reporter asked him about it last week — and Mayor de Blasio is still worrying more about horse carriages than about trains.
Then, too, the tunnel travesty is another reminder of how much money the Port Authority has wasted under governors of both parties in both states. The MTA, too, has wasted billions on a vanity project to bring LIRR trains into Grand Central.
Both Cuomo and Christie should be pushing Congress to get the Amtrak tunnel done, and faster — and be offering to chip in money of their own to get it done.
They should also have a plan in case they're stuck with almost no tunnel.
"I feel really bad for New Jersey commuters," says Sam Schwartz, former city traffic commissioner. "There are so few alternatives. The [Lincoln Tunnel] bus lane is at capacity. The [car] tunnels already have delays that are extensive."
In an emergency closure, people would have to double — even triple — up to drive in, and Jersey would need more buses.
Both sides of the river should be ready. They can't claim to be surprised later.
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