On Tuesday, the first college football rankings will be released by the now 12-person playoff committee and the new four-team playoff will become immediately infuriating — until Jan. 1, when four teams begin battling for a national title and all the nonsense that preceded it will be disregarded, just as every BCS title game accomplished.
But until the four teams are determined Dec. 7, the nonsense will overwhelm, occupying every day but Saturday.
With no precedent for the way teams will be measured, how the cluster(bleep) of one-loss teams are slotted should give some insight into what criteria are being used to separate the great from the just as great, the difference between two teams that haven't played each other and have no common opponents.
With 16 one-loss teams from power conferences all attempting to make arguments for playoff spots, here are the most important questions about the first rankings:
How much does strength of schedule really matter?
Teams such as Alabama are going to be rewarded for playing in a strong conference, while teams such as Florida State are going to be hurt by playing in a weaker conference, even though those teams have no control over how the programs around them perform. Non-conference scheduling is more reflective of a team's willingness to improve its résumé by playing a tough schedule.
Will Michigan State be rewarded for traveling to Oregon? Will Baylor be punished for loading up against Buffalo, Northwestern State and SMU? And how will intent to schedule strong be weighed, i.e., Notre Dame, which has wins against Michigan and Stanford that don't look nearly as impressive as those wins normally would appear?
Will previous polls subconsciously come into play?
The AP Poll and Coaches Poll have been in place for decades, but have no official bearing on the committee's rankings. Still, there is something to seeing a number next to a name. In the AP Poll, Alabama is No. 3 and Ole Miss (which beat Alabama) is No. 7, while Oregon is No. 5, Arizona (which beat Oregon on the road) is 14th, TCU is 10th and Nebraska is 17th. See a number next to a name long enough and it can become ingrained in a person's mind, like a brand. How many committee members will be willing to break away from already established determinations?
Does the perception of SEC power permeate the rankings?
The perception is the SEC is the most incredible assemblage of anything since Noah loaded up his ark, but just because it's perception doesn't mean it's not true. The strength of the conference changes each year, though, and it's unclear if this group is similarly superior up top or just extraordinarily deep. Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss and Georgia all suffered their only losses in-conference. Will those losses be less hurtful since the SEC seems so powerful? Two playoff spots for the conference could happen, with a sure sign coming if two-loss LSU ranks ahead of other one-loss teams.
Which power conference — Big 12, Pac-12 or Big Ten — is most likely to miss the playoff?
One is guaranteed to miss out. Two could be fuming if Notre Dame takes another spot, with a third in play if the SEC steals a second bid (assuming Florida State wins out). Which conference will get the least love and will the hole be too deep to climb into the top four?
… And since the committee has to face the public scorn and scrutiny, I'll open myself up to the same criticism with my own picks: Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Notre Dame.
To clarify (since the committee might not do the same by explaining its own rankings), these are not the four best teams at the moment (which would include Alabama), but the four most deserving teams at the moment.
So many questions will sort themselves out because of the multitude of head-to-head matchups between contending teams still remaining, but what matters is a model will be set on how to separate teams with the same record.
Most importantly, don't get upset — yet. Each Tuesday until Dec. 7 is just a TV event, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing but a great way to make advertising money.
Prediction
The teams Howie Kussoy thinks should be in the top four Tuesday:
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Auburn
4. Notre Dame
The teams Howie thinks will be in the top four Tuesday:
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Alabama
4. Auburn
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