The Texans would surprise no one by making Jadeveon Clowney the No. 1 overall pick in this week's belated NFL Draft.
Whether Houston keeps Clowney is another story.
League sources continue to wonder if the Texans will pull their own version of the Eli Manning-Philip Rivers trade of 10 years ago now that the Falcons have made their interest in Clowney, the defensive freak of nature from South Carolina, so obviously clear.
Atlanta, which has the No. 6 choice, tipped its hand last week when team officials flew to visit Clowney and give him a "force plate assessment" (a proprietary test to gauge an athlete's durability).
It was considered a clear-cut sign of the Falcons' plans, because there's no way they will land Clowney with the sixth pick. Clowney also wouldn't have agreed to the test — the only one he took for any team this spring — without assurances from Atlanta the team's interest is real.
What would be in it for the Texans? Well, if the Eli Manning-Philip Rivers trade serves as any kind of indicator, potentially quite a lot.
In return for drafting Manning and then shipping him to New York for Rivers, whom the Giants had agreed to take at No. 4, San Diego got a starting quarterback, a third-round pick in 2004 and first- and fifth-rounders in 2005.
The extra picks turned out to be kicker Nate Kaeding, linebacker Shawne Merriman and offensive tackle Roman Oben. The Chargers have yet to get a Super Bowl out of the deal, but history will show it was a productive trade for both teams.
As well as the glaring holes on defense Clowney would address, the Falcons also have plenty to offer Houston. Atlanta has nine selections in this year's draft, only two of them compensatory picks, which can't be traded.
Stay tuned.
Trading with the Falcons also would take the heat off new Texans coach Bill O'Brien to take local hero Johnny Manziel No. 1.
Manziel is a native Texan who starred at Texas A&M (just a short drive from Houston), and the Texans have a sizable hole at quarterback after getting rid of Matt Schaub. Manziel also caused a stir this winter by vowing the Texans would regret not picking him.
But league sources say O'Brien isn't interested in drafting a quarterback with the first pick. Working a draft-day blockbuster with the Falcons would allow the former Penn State boss to change the subject rather quickly.
The extra two weeks of preparation caused by the NFL's decision to move the draft back because of a scheduling conflict at Radio City Music Hall hasn't been easy on anyone.
Scouts, coaches and executives alike are exasperated by all the extra (and unnecessary) downtime, but don't be fooled by reports of rising and falling draft stock this week.
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman told me last week his team's draft board has been set in stone for weeks now, and nothing short of an arrest or sudden injury to a prospect will change it.
And Roseman isn't alone.
The Saints' football brain trust finished their draft preparation so long ago and was so befuddled by the extra time they flew to Las Vegas over the weekend for "relaxation."
Scouts say David Carr's flameout as the No. 1 overall pick in 2002 hasn't helped brother Derek Carr's stock in this year's draft, with some hinting it might be on the rise if his name were Joe Smith instead.
Some teams just can't get over the memory of David Carr throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes in three of his five seasons with Houston (all of them sub-.500) while being sacked a staggering 249 times.
Even so, David Carr — who spent four of the past five seasons as a Giants backup — said last week six teams have shown interest in signing him as a reserve and mentor if that team ends up drafting Derek.
Anybody heard Michael Sam's name lately? That story sure de-escalated quickly.
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