There's a saying in Hollywood that "nobody knows anything." That was famed screenwriter William Goldman 's way of admitting that neither he nor anyone else knew what makes a movie successful.
You should keep that saying in mind when you read 2014 predictions from Wall Street gurus. Nobody on Wall Street knows anything either. But they make money trying to convince you that they do.
I've got some thoughts of my own for this coming year — and a couple of them (OK, maybe just one) may even turn out to be correct. So, let me get to them.
- The winning PowerBall numbers for May 21 will be 3, 5, 19, 31 and 53, with Powerball 3. That also happens to be the week of my birthday, so it would be nice if you send me a gift when you win.
(A tip on predicting things: Always make your calls far enough in advance so people forget what they are.)
- Someone will attempt to acquire a company in 2014 using bitcoin. The targeted company will probably be JCPenney, which will give the acquirer a coupon worth 20 percent off the purchase price.
- The nation's employment figures will turn ugly at the beginning of 2014. Wall Street will decide that this is a good thing because it will force the Federal Reserve to boost the amount of bonds it is buying under its quantitative easing program.
This rationale will be used whenever a bad economic report surfaces next year.
- The Fed will continue to be cooperative.
U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet YellenPhoto: Reuters
In fact, Janet Yellen's first major behind-the-scenes comment as Fed chairman will be, "Call Goldman Sachs and see how many bonds it would like us to buy."
- The Fed will continue to play this game until the biggest owner of US bonds, the Chinese government, says "feng dian," which translates to something like "crazy."
Once the Chinese speak, Yellen will shut up.
- There will be a bowl game after the college football bowl season ends, called the "ESPN Needs to Fill a Hole in Its Schedule Bowl."
- Major League Baseball will prohibit spitting from the dugout, unless the players are aiming at A-Rod.
- The benchmark 10-year bond could hit 4 percent in 2014 (it's now 3 percent), and TV talking heads will call 4 percent the new 3 percent.
- The stock market will continue to rise until it doesn't rise any more.
And then it will fall. When that happens, everyone (and I mean every single person on Wall Street) will claim that — just like they did the last time and the time before that — they saw it coming and it wasn't their fault.
Bernie MadoffPhoto: Justin Lane/EPA
- Bernie Madoff will be made chairman of the Bank of Bitcoin when the make-believe currency becomes convertible into Galleons (from "Harry Potter") and Jangles (from "My Little Pony.")
Since Madoff is already in prison for the rest of his life, naming him chairman will save authorities the trouble of finding someone else to incarcerate over this latest version of the confidence game.
- Congressional investigators will determine that more than just a few people at the Census Bureau and Commerce Department have been fooling around with economic data.
How deeply the Republicans on the House Oversight Committee look into the matter will depend on whether the abuses go back into the Bush White House.
- I'm pretty confident that Detroit or Japanese automakers next year will finally develop car headlights that can burn through the retina of oncoming drivers. And I believe that by the end of 2014 only three cabbies in New York City will still be using their directional signals.
- Anchors for CNBC will say something negative about the stock market. But it'll happen only once because advertisers will complain.
- Spinach will be declared a toxic substance. And it will be discovered that Twizzlers contain anti-oxidants.
- Paramount will shorten the three-hour long "The Wolf of Wall Street" by 20 minutes by simply leaving out the f-words. And as long as they keep all the beautiful women, it will still be a great f–king movie!
- The post office will teach UPS how to deliver things on time. UPS will teach the post office how to be profitable by not paying the overtime necessary to get things delivered on time.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben BernankePhoto: Mark Wilson/Getty Images
- Ben Bernanke will join Alan Greenspan on the lecture circuit and be billed as the Two Bankdittos for stealing from the poor and middle class to rescue the rich and banks.
- Congress will show up for 113 days of work in 2014, less than the 126 days this year. But since nothing ever gets accomplished in Washington anyway at least the Congressional electric bill will be lower.
That will be the extent of the government's cost savings in 2014 as the Federal debt races toward $18 trillion.
- A former NFL player will finally come out — and say that he understood the risk when he decided to bang his head against someone else's. (I'm not saying they don't deserve compensation for maiming themselves for our enjoyment. I'd just like a player to admit that nobody forced him onto the field.)
- A cell phone will be developed that automatically dials your family and friends on their birthdays and plays a recorded message that says: "I'm sending you a hundred bucks for your birthday, so don't get mad that I don't have time to call myself."
- Michael Bloomberg will buy a personal fleet of drones to keep tabs on New York City. One will be on the lookout for those hated 64-ounce sodas. Meanwhile, Lindsey Lohan's family will put a drone on her but she'll end up getting the drone into trouble.
- Gasoline will get back up to around $4 a gallon even if the economy remains weak. Wall Street will again bid up the price of energy once it can't rig the stock market anymore. Oil producers in the Middle East will be blamed.
- 20Target will offer special sales next Christmas to the people who stole its customers' credit card information. Hey, a sale to a thief is as good as any other.
Finally — yes, I know this is a long column. So, finally, my last prediction: If you don't take 2014 too serious you'll have a Happy New Year.
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